Challenges Facing Governance in Post -Assad Syria From extremism to Foreign Intervention

According to Negaheno report the fall of Bashar Assad in December 2024 made Syria encounter a huge change in its political and security atmosphere and laid the ground for the country to enter a fresh stage with completely different situations. These changes were simultaneous to the emergence of new players like Turkey and their affiliate militia groups who inspired by their Ikhvani mindset during the past years are pursuing to gain power in certain Islamic countries.
The historical experiences of how these groups work show that when they encounter peripheral changes, they try to redefine themselves and hold an active role in political affairs. Similarly, the actions undertaken by Tahrir-Al-Shaam group led by Mohammad Al-Jolani who continues to stand in the list of UN terrorist groups indicates a similar effort to change approach from a militia group to a political institution.

The forthcoming challenges

The failed experiences in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya have led those groups who have in recent years tried to take power in other Islamic countries inspired by similar thinking to face lack of political legitimacy due to low public trust towards them.
In Syria also groups such as Tahrir- Al-Shaam has tried to stabilize its status through change of political leadership by support of countries such as Turkey and Qatar but still face criticism from the Jihadi groups and local influential people. The presence of ideological and tactical differences among various groups including the Jihadi and Islamist groups has avoided any effective unity as were seen in previous experiences.

Future outlook
Those groups who have taken hold of power in Syria currently will end up in decline if they fail to attract public support and overcome internal disputes like similar experiences in other countries and it is possible that other failed experiences add up to their current ones.

Of course, considering the serious investment of Turkey and Qatar for providing the grounds for achieving success for these groups in post -Assad Syria it is possible that in case of a decline in internal disputes between the mainstreams present in power, these groups would yield to a guided democracy by accepting limited participation of some other politicians of the country in order to reduce internal and foreign induced sensitivity and less ideological works in order to administer the future governance of Syria.

Naturally, the formation of such a trend considering the different groups present in Syria and their political and religious approaches would face serous challenges. Especially, that the foreign interventions and their impact would aggravate the actions of these groups and add more complexity to the political situation and security of Syria.

Under such circumstances that instability can work as one of the most important factors affecting any actions some groups could use violence as a means for redefining their power which itself would lead to more tensions and threats within Syria and even at regional level.

Due to the political, cultural and social situation in Syria and also the religious and racial tendencies in the country the future of Syria will be strongly intensified by internal competitions between Islamist and secular groups, racial and religious tensions and foreign players. Another scenario is the disintegration of Syria into regions that would be controlled by different groups which some analysts have referred to in particular, in the northern regions that are influenced by Turkey and the Kurds.
Foreign investment and efforts to offer a model for an effective governance in areas
that are under control can help these groups to retain their legitimacy however, if these groups fail to manage the internal disputes or attract public support it is possible that a similar destiny of similar streams in Egypt and Libya would face them and they would lose their influence.