Iraq: A New Power Geometry and the Future Challenges

According to New Visiona report considering the general process of the latest results of the elections (the strengthening of the existing streams, weakening of public participation and redistributing power within the Shiite and the community), a number of key impacts and challenges can be reviewed in the following:1- The impact of election on the new power geometry in the regiona) Stabilizing controlled existing status The results of the election shows that Iraq is moving towards minimum stability and not a complete state. In other words, lower possibility of a collapse in terms of security but continuity of fragile government coalitions at local level. At regional level also, Iraq is neither an invasive player nor a complete passive one but it will remain as an in- between and a cautious one.

b) Continuity of influence by the regional playersThe election showed that the close axis to Iran continues to have a determining influence but this influence is not an ‘absolute hegemony’ and it can be contained through internal considerations, authority and pressure of the public opinionAs a result, Iraq will remain in the regional equation of Tehran-Riyadh communication and will continue its role as a channel for Iran, the Arabs and even the west dialogue.c) Decline in the role of ideology and increase in the local politics.People’s voting took place mostly based on services, employment and local identity. This trend has led Iraq to act more pragmatical and less ideological in the foreign politics.2- Iraq’s Major forthcoming challengesa) Political legitimacy challengesLow participation in the elections (although it was higher as compared to the last elections. It was 56 % higher as compared to 41% in 2021, but the proportion of the total general number of those qualified to take part in the voting was still low- from a total of 29,253,258 people who were qualified to vote, a number of 21,404,291 people received their voting cards but only a maximum of 12,096,453 voted) and lack of public trust towards the parties has threatened the fact that even a legitimate government could have a weak social legitimacy.

b) Rentier economy and unemployment rate among the youth So long as the economy relies on oil, organized corruption and feeble private sector, any future government will be encountered by new waves of social protests. Currently, the rate of unemployment in Iraq equals 5.15% with the government report indicating an improvement from 17% from the previous government which indicates that the government of Al-Sudani has been helpful in improving the people’s livelihood and fighting corruption in Iraq.

c) The Issue of sovereignty and weapons out of the reach of governmentOne of Iraq’s main challenges is to regulate the government relations with the armed groups without causing internal conflicts. An issue that has both an internal aspect as well as a direct relation with regional rivalry. Although, this excludes a powerful parliament and unified government supporting military capacity and internal security and prevention of foreign interventions i.e., the US, and regulating the relations between the government and the armed forces which were formed after Iraq’s US occupation followed by the emergence of the Takfiri terrorists such as ISIS.

d) Iraq’s gap with the realm and the provincesTensions between Baghdad and Kurdistan realms and the southern provinces can be increased if their budget and authority structure are not reformed. This is true specially in the realm that benefit by selling the oil with the help of the US, Turkey and the Zionist regime without the supervision of the central government and this is one of the main challenges

e) Turning into a center for t