“War Without Bullets: Why Trump’s Strategy of Psychological Pressure Against Iran Is Destined to Fail

…but rather the repetition of a worn-out pattern in the history of international relations—one that has been tested repeatedly and has consistently failedBy relying on psychological intimidation, manufactured uncertainty, cognitive warfare, and economic pressure—alongside efforts to stimulate internal unrest—Trump seeks to reverse a lost game without entering a direct military confrontation. This is an attempt to compensate for strategic limitations through spectacle rather than substance. Yet history, political sociology, and Iran’s civilizational experience suggest that this approach is fundamentally flawed.
Trump is a political figure shaped by the age of performative politics, where headlines substitute for strategy and media noise replaces diplomacy. He understands that a conventional war against Iran would carry costs far beyond the tolerance of the United States and its allies. Consequently, he has embraced a strategy of “war without bullets,” aimed not at conquering territory, but at shaping perceptions.

However, cognitive warfare only succeeds when directed against societies lacking historical depth, social cohesion, and identity resilience. Iran represents the opposite case. Economic sanctions, intended to fracture Iranian society, have instead reinforced internal cohesion and exposed the structural vulnerabilities of the sanctioning powers themselves.
History shows that external pressure on societies with deep civilizational memory often generates convergence rather than collapse. Iran is not merely a modern state; it is a living civilization that has endured invasions, coercion, and prolonged conflict, only to reconstitute itself each time.

The assumption that economic hardship and psychological pressure would break Iran’s social fabric reflects a persistent misreading of Iranian society. During periods of existential threat, Iranian society has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to mobilize material and moral resources in ways that defy conventional political calculations.

Another pillar of Trump’s strategy lies in encouraging disorder through proxy networks and destabilizing actors. Yet recent history—from West Asia to North Africa—has shown that such methods produce uncontrollable instability rather than strategic victories. These approaches have left enduring humanitarian, security, and political costs, often rebounding against their architects.

The belief that Iran, with its complex social structure and deeply rooted institutions, could be subdued through these tactics reflects strategic illusion rather than realism.

Trump’s vision of American power resembles the myth of invincibility that once surrounded the Titanic: a belief that size and force alone guarantee immunity from failure. History teaches otherwise. Empires do not collapse because of external enemies alone, but because of internal overreach and strategic arrogance.

Iran, in this equation, is not an obstacle to be removed, but a structural reality of the international system—one that cannot be shouted down or sanctioned away.
Administrations come and go, but Iran’s role as a civilizational actor remains. In this war without bullets, Iran is unlikely to be defeated. Instead, it will once again demonstrate that civilizations cannot be dismantled through psychological warfare.

History, unlike social media cycles, delivers its judgments slowly—but definitively.

Dr. Mohammad Ali Senobari
 Director of Newvision Center for Studies and Media
 Tehran
 January 29, 2026